Rental Assistance Capital Model

Inputs — Funding & Deployment

Annual charitable inflow (gross)

Donations raised per year before overhead.

Overhead / admin rate (%)

Share of gross consumed by fundraising & administration.

Net new capital per year

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Average security deposit ($)

Capped at 1 month rent under RSA 540-A:6 (existing law).

RCD size as multiple of deposit (×)

HB 1336 caps the RCD at one additional month of rent (1.0× the deposit).

Share of assisted households also needing an RCD (%)

The rest receive the standard deposit only. Many applicants need just deposit help (savings shortfall); a subset additionally fails one of the five statutory criteria and needs an RCD too.

Average capital deployed per assisted household

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Average tenancy before refund (yrs) [L]

Whole years 1–5; longer L = slower recycling = more conservative.

Apply overhead to recycled capital?

No = recycled dollars need no re-fundraising.

Recovery Rate — Anchored to TransUnion Tiers

Recovery method

Manual recovery rate r (%) — used only if Manual override

Loss-given-eviction (%)

100% = full impound when an eviction is filed and reduced to judgment.

Base non-recovery (%)

Avg lawful deductions in non-evicted tenancies (wear, cleaning, damages). 5–15% defensible.

Population-weighted eviction rate

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Effective recovery rate r

—

Credit Tier Population Mix

TransUnion ResidentScore eviction rates by credit tier. Edit the population mix to match the served population.

Tier	Eviction rate	Pop. mix
350–449	12.3%
450–499	9.4%
500–549	5.8%
550–649	1.3%
650–749	0.3%
Total (must equal 100%)		100%

Results — 10-Year Horizon

Do Nothing — Households / 10 yrs

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grant, deposit-only (current law)

HB 1336 — Households / 10 yrs
—
revolving, deposit + RCD where needed

Incremental Households

—

Reach Multiplier
—
HB 1336 ÷ do nothing

Year-10 Annual Capacity — Do Nothing

—

households / yr

Year-10 Annual Capacity — HB 1336

—

households / yr

Cumulative Households Over 10 Years

HB 1336 starts behind do-nothing in years 1–L (here L = average tenancy) because the first cohort's deposits haven't returned yet. Once recycling begins, the curves cross and HB 1336 pulls ahead.

Annual Placements Per Year

Households placed in each year. The HB 1336 program runs below the grant baseline during the initial outlay period, then steps up as each cohort’s refunds return for redeployment (at years L+1, 2L+1, …).

Year-by-Year

Year	HB 1336 Capital Deployed	HB 1336 Households	HB 1336 Cumulative	Do Nothing Households	Do Nothing Cumulative	Year Delta (HB 1336 − Do Nothing)	Year Delta % (vs. Do Nothing)	Cumulative Delta (HB 1336 − Do Nothing)	Cumulative Delta % (vs. Do Nothing)

"Year Delta" is the per-year placement difference (negative early, positive after the crossover). "Cumulative Delta" tracks the running total — this is the bottom-line incremental impact at any horizon. The % columns express each delta relative to the do-nothing baseline; green is favorable, red unfavorable.

Scenario Comparison: HB 1336 vs. the Do-Nothing Baseline

Each row below is a different combination of recovery rate r and the share of households needing an RCD. The first row is the do-nothing baseline (current law). The highlighted "current inputs" row uses whatever you've set above. The remaining rows stress-test the conclusion against more pessimistic combinations.

Scenario	Households / 10 yrs	vs. Do Nothing	% vs. Baseline

Sensitivity Heatmap: Households Served Over 10 Years Under HB 1336

Rows vary the share of households needing an RCD; columns vary the recovery rate. All cells hold tenancy L, deposit size, RCD multiple, inflow, and overhead at the values you've set above. Green cells exceed the do-nothing baseline; red cells fall below it. The only region where HB 1336 underperforms do-nothing is the lower-left corner — simultaneously high RCD demand and low recovery.

How this works

The model compares two worlds over a fixed horizon H = 10 years. Under do nothing, charity-funded deposits are one-way grants — the deposit refunds to the tenant at move-out and never returns to the fund. Under HB 1336, charity-funded deposits (and RCDs, where used) refund to the third-party payor under RSA 540-A:7, I(b) and are redeployed to the next household.

Variables — Indices & horizon

H: Modeling horizon, in years (fixed at 10 in this calculator)
t: Year index, t = 1, 2, …, H
i: Credit-tier index, i = 1, …, 5 (350–449, 450–499, 500–549, 550–649, 650–749)

Variables — Inputs

N: Annual charitable inflow (gross donations per year)
o: Overhead rate (share of N consumed by fundraising & admin)
D: Average security deposit (≤ 1 month rent under RSA 540-A:6)
m: RCD size as a multiple of D (capped at 1.0 under HB 1336)
b: Share of assisted households also needing an RCD on top of the deposit
L: Average tenancy before refund, in years
f: Recycle factor: 1 if overhead is not re-charged on recycled capital; (1 − o) otherwise
p_i: Population share in credit tier i
e_i: Eviction rate in credit tier i (TransUnion ResidentScore)
LGE: Loss-given-eviction (share of held capital consumed when an eviction is filed and reduced to judgment)
B: Base non-recovery (lawful deductions absent eviction — wear, cleaning, damages)

Variables — Derived quantities

N′: Net new capital per year = N × (1 − o)
ē: Population-weighted eviction rate = Σ_i p_i × e_i
r: Effective recovery rate (see formula below)
K: Capital deployed per assisted household under HB 1336 = D × (1 + b × m)
K₀: Capital deployed per assisted household under do nothing = D
C(t): Capital deployed in year t under HB 1336 (see recurrence below)
C₀(t): Capital deployed in year t under do nothing = N′ (no recycling)
HH(t): Households served in year t under HB 1336 = C(t) / K
HH₀: Households served per year under do nothing = N′ / K₀ (constant across years)

Recovery rate

r = max( 0, 1 − ē × LGE − B ) where ē = Σ_i p_i × e_i

If the recovery method is set to "Manual override," r is taken directly from that input instead.

Annual capital evolution

HB 1336: C(t) = N′ + f × r × C(t − L) for t > L; C(t) = N′ otherwise

Do nothing: C₀(t) = N′ for every t (no recycling — recovery is 0% by definition)

Households served

HB 1336: HH(t) = C(t) / K cumulative: Σ_t=1..H HH(t)

Do nothing: HH₀ = N′ / K₀ (constant across years) cumulative: H × HH₀

Reach multiplier

Reach multiplier = [ Σ_t=1..H HH(t) ] ÷ [ H × HH₀ ]

Source data: eviction rates by credit tier are from the TransUnion ResidentScore analysis cited in the HB 1336 comprehensive policy analysis. Caveat: illustrative underwriting model, not a guarantee of outcomes. Real-world recovery and tenancy vary by program design and population.